DATA FOR OBAMA’S SOUR APPLES TO APPLES PART TWO
Links to April 11-13 SUSA Polls : California, Iowa, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, and Wisconsin.
Links to the Feb 26-28 SUSA polls can be found here.
Note: The “*AVG*” data is the average for the nine states. Data is not weighed to reflect the population differences in those states.
A full set of relevant data (in an excel file) is available upon request by writing to
Election
At
glcq
Dot
com
CHART B-1
|
CHART B-1 DATA -- AVERAGE
SUPPORT CHANGES IN KEY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS |
||
|
Candidate |
Clinton |
Obama |
|
Voters |
1.3% |
-1.6% |
|
Male |
1.8% |
-1.2% |
|
Female |
1.0% |
-1.8% |
|
White |
0.8% |
-3.2% |
|
Independ |
2.4% |
-4.2% |
|
Moderate |
0.1% |
-2.9% |
|
AVERAGE SUPPORT CHANGES
BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY |
||
|
|
Clinton |
Obama |
|
Voters |
1.3% |
-1.6% |
|
Male |
1.8% |
-1.2% |
|
Female |
1.0% |
-1.8% |
|
White |
0.8% |
-3.2% |
|
Black |
1.4% |
7.7% |
|
Hispanic |
5.2% |
-2.0% |
|
Other |
7.7% |
5.8% |
|
Republic |
1.1% |
-1.7% |
|
Democrat |
-0.3% |
-1.0% |
|
Independ |
2.4% |
-4.2% |
|
Conserva |
3.0% |
0.8% |
|
Moderate |
0.1% |
-2.9% |
|
Liberal |
-0.4% |
-4.1% |
CHART B-2
|
CHART B-2 DATA -- AVERAGE
MARGIN CHANGES IN KEY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS |
||
|
Candidate |
Clinton Margin |
Obama Margin |
|
Voters |
0.1% |
-4.9% |
|
Male |
0.8% |
-4.8% |
|
Female |
-0.7% |
-5.2% |
|
White |
-2.1% |
-8.8% |
|
Independ |
-0.0% |
-11.4% |
|
Moderate |
-2.3% |
-7.8% |
|
AVERAGE MARGIN CHANGES BY
DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY |
||
|
|
Clinton |
Obama |
|
Voters |
0.1% |
-4.9% |
|
Male |
0.8% |
-4.8% |
|
Female |
-0.7% |
-5.2% |
|
White |
-2.1% |
-8.8% |
|
Black |
-2.8% |
7.3% |
|
Hispanic |
12.1% |
-3.8% |
|
Other |
12.3% |
17.6% |
|
Republic |
-0.2% |
-7.0% |
|
Democrat |
-1.1% |
-2.1% |
|
Independ |
-0.0% |
-11.4% |
|
Conserva |
1.2% |
-2.3% |
|
Moderate |
-2.3% |
-7.8% |
|
Liberal |
-0.7% |
-7.7% |
CHART B-3
|
CHART B-3 DATA -- AVERAGE CHANGES IN UNDECIDED VOTERS IN KEY
DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS |
||
|
Candidate |
Clinton Margin |
Obama Margin |
|
Voters |
-2.6% |
-1.8% |
|
Male |
-2.8% |
-2.4% |
|
Female |
-3.0% |
-1.8% |
|
White |
-3.2% |
-2.3% |
|
Independ |
-4.7% |
-3.0% |
|
Moderate |
-2.1% |
-1.8% |
|
AVERAGE DECREASE IN
UNDECIDED VOTERS BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY |
||
|
|
Clinton |
Obama |
|
Voters |
-2.6% |
-1.8% |
|
Male |
-2.8% |
-2.4% |
|
Female |
-3.0% |
-1.8% |
|
White |
-3.2% |
-2.3% |
|
Black |
-5.7% |
-8.1% |
|
Hispanic |
1.7% |
0.2% |
|
Other |
-3.3% |
6.1% |
|
Republic |
-2.6% |
-3.7% |
|
Democrat |
-0.7% |
0.0% |
|
Independ |
-4.7% |
-3.0% |
|
Conserva |
-4.7% |
-3.8% |
|
Moderate |
-2.1% |
-1.8% |
|
Liberal |
0.2% |
0.7% |
Chart B-4
CHART B-4 DATA--MALE VOTERS--SUPPORT
|
||||
|
|
Feb HRC |
April HRC |
Feb BHO |
April BHO |
|
CA |
37% |
50% |
49% |
51% |
|
IA |
37% |
|||