DATA FOR OBAMA’S SOUR APPLES TO APPLES PART TWO
Links to April 11-13 SUSA Polls : California, Iowa, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, and Wisconsin.
Links to the Feb 26-28 SUSA polls can be found here.
Note: The “*AVG*” data is the average for the nine states. Data is not weighed to reflect the population differences in those states.
A full set of relevant data (in an excel file) is available upon request by writing to
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At
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com
CHART B-1
|
CHART B-1 DATA -- AVERAGE
SUPPORT CHANGES IN KEY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS |
||
|
Candidate |
Clinton |
Obama |
|
Voters |
1.3% |
-1.6% |
|
Male |
1.8% |
-1.2% |
|
Female |
1.0% |
-1.8% |
|
White |
0.8% |
-3.2% |
|
Independ |
2.4% |
-4.2% |
|
Moderate |
0.1% |
-2.9% |
|
AVERAGE SUPPORT CHANGES
BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY |
||
|
|
Clinton |
Obama |
|
Voters |
1.3% |
-1.6% |
|
Male |
1.8% |
-1.2% |
|
Female |
1.0% |
-1.8% |
|
White |
0.8% |
-3.2% |
|
Black |
1.4% |
7.7% |
|
Hispanic |
5.2% |
-2.0% |
|
Other |
7.7% |
5.8% |
|
Republic |
1.1% |
-1.7% |
|
Democrat |
-0.3% |
-1.0% |
|
Independ |
2.4% |
-4.2% |
|
Conserva |
3.0% |
0.8% |
|
Moderate |
0.1% |
-2.9% |
|
Liberal |
-0.4% |
-4.1% |
CHART B-2
|
CHART B-2 DATA -- AVERAGE
MARGIN CHANGES IN KEY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS |
||
|
Candidate |
Clinton Margin |
Obama Margin |
|
Voters |
0.1% |
-4.9% |
|
Male |
0.8% |
-4.8% |
|
Female |
-0.7% |
-5.2% |
|
White |
-2.1% |
-8.8% |
|
Independ |
-0.0% |
-11.4% |
|
Moderate |
-2.3% |
-7.8% |
|
AVERAGE MARGIN CHANGES BY
DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY |
||
|
|
Clinton |
Obama |
|
Voters |
0.1% |
-4.9% |
|
Male |
0.8% |
-4.8% |
|
Female |
-0.7% |
-5.2% |
|
White |
-2.1% |
-8.8% |
|
Black |
-2.8% |
7.3% |
|
Hispanic |
12.1% |
-3.8% |
|
Other |
12.3% |
17.6% |
|
Republic |
-0.2% |
-7.0% |
|
Democrat |
-1.1% |
-2.1% |
|
Independ |
-0.0% |
-11.4% |
|
Conserva |
1.2% |
-2.3% |
|
Moderate |
-2.3% |
-7.8% |
|
Liberal |
-0.7% |
-7.7% |
CHART B-3
|
CHART B-3 DATA -- AVERAGE CHANGES IN UNDECIDED VOTERS IN KEY
DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS |
||
|
Candidate |
Clinton Margin |
Obama Margin |
|
Voters |
-2.6% |
-1.8% |
|
Male |
-2.8% |
-2.4% |
|
Female |
-3.0% |
-1.8% |
|
White |
-3.2% |
-2.3% |
|
Independ |
-4.7% |
-3.0% |
|
Moderate |
-2.1% |
-1.8% |
|
AVERAGE DECREASE IN
UNDECIDED VOTERS BY DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORY |
||
|
|
Clinton |
Obama |
|
Voters |
-2.6% |
-1.8% |
|
Male |
-2.8% |
-2.4% |
|
Female |
-3.0% |
-1.8% |
|
White |
-3.2% |
-2.3% |
|
Black |
-5.7% |
-8.1% |
|
Hispanic |
1.7% |
0.2% |
|
Other |
-3.3% |
6.1% |
|
Republic |
-2.6% |
-3.7% |
|
Democrat |
-0.7% |
0.0% |
|
Independ |
-4.7% |
-3.0% |
|
Conserva |
-4.7% |
-3.8% |
|
Moderate |
-2.1% |
-1.8% |
|
Liberal |
0.2% |
0.7% |
Chart B-4
CHART B-4 DATA--MALE VOTERS--SUPPORT
|
||||
|
|
Feb HRC |
April HRC |
Feb BHO |
April BHO |
|
CA |
37% |
50% |
49% |
51% |
|
IA |
37% |
37% |
45% |
46% |
|
MA |
51% |
45% |
50% |
40% |
|
MN |
37% |
40% |
44% |
45% |
|
MO |
38% |
45% |
39% |
45% |
|
NM |
43% |
39% |
46% |
39% |
|
OH |
47% |
47% |
49% |
43% |
|
OR |
33% |
40% |
45% |
46% |
|
WI |
40% |
36% |
43% |
44% |
|
*AVG* |
40.3% |
42.1% |
45.6% |
44.3% |
CHART B-5
CHART B-5 DATA--MALE VOTERS--MARGINS
|
||||
|
|
Feb HRC |
April HRC |
Feb BHO |
April BHO |
|
CA |
-14% |
7% |
6% |
7% |
|
IA |
-14% |
-19% |
-1% |
-2% |
|
MA |
10% |
-9% |
6% |
-17% |
|
MN |
-14% |
-14% |
-3% |
-3% |
|
MO |
-18% |
-4% |
-15% |
-2% |
|
NM |
-11% |
-14% |
-2% |
-16% |
|
OH |
5% |
-3% |
9% |
-7% |
|
OR |
-24% |
-13% |
-1% |
-3% |
|
WI |
-12% |
-16% |
-5% |
-6% |
|
*AVG* |
-10.2% |
-9.4% |
-0.7% |
-5.4% |
CHART B-6
CHART B-6 DATA—MALE VOTERS—MARGIN
CHANGE
|
||
|
|
HRC Feb to April Change |
BHO Feb to April Change |
|
CA |
21% |
1% |
|
IA |
-5% |
-1% |
|
MA |
-19% |
-23% |
|
MN |
0% |
0% |
|
MO |
14% |
13% |
|
NM |
-3% |
-14% |
|
OH |
-8% |
-16% |
|
OR |
11% |
-2% |
|
WI |
-4% |
-1% |
|
*AVG* |
0.8% |
-4.8% |
CHART B-7
CHART B-7 DATA--FEMALE VOTERS--SUPPORT
|
||||
|
|
Feb HRC |
April HRC |
Feb BHO |
April BHO |
|
CA |
62% |
55% |
53% |
49% |
|
IA |
46% |
47% |
54% |
52% |
|
MA |
58% |
66% |
49% |
55% |
|
MN |
57% |
54% |
53% |
52% |
|
MO |
48% |
50% |
44% |
40% |
|
NM |
52% |
51% |
54% |
48% |
|
OH |
53% |
59% |
51% |
46% |
|
OR |
52% |
55% |
52% |
55% |
|
WI |
55% |
55% |
58% |
55% |
|
*AVG* |
53.7% |
54.7% |
52.0% |
50.2% |
CHART B-8
CHART B-8 DATA--FEMALE VOTERS--MARGINS
|
||||
|
|
Feb HRC |
April HRC |
Feb BHO |
April BHO |
|
CA |
31% |
18% |
16% |
8% |
|
IA |
5% |
7% |
17% |
15% |
|
MA |
25% |
36% |
9% |
19% |
|
MN |
22% |
15% |
16% |
13% |
|
MO |
7% |
6% |
2% |
-13% |
|
NM |
12% |
6% |
16% |
3% |
|
OH |
16% |
23% |
11% |
2% |
|
OR |
12% |
16% |
17% |
19% |
|
WI |
18% |
15% |
25% |
16% |
|
*AVG* |
16.4% |
15.8% |
14.3% |
9.1% |
CHART B-9
CHART B-9 DATA—FEMALE VOTERS—MARGIN
CHANGE
|
||
|
|
HRC Feb to April Change |
BHO Feb to April Change |
|
CA |
-13% |
-8% |
|
IA |
2% |
-2% |
|
MA |
11% |
10% |
|
MN |
-7% |
-3% |
|
MO |
-1% |
-15% |
|
NM |
-6% |
-13% |
|
OH |
7% |
-9% |
|
OR |
4% |
2% |
|
WI |
-3% |
-9% |
|
*AVG* |
-0.7% |
-5.2% |
CHART B-10
|
CHART B-10 DATA –
FEB to APRIL MARGIN CHANGES FOR CLINTON: ALL, MALE &
FEMALE VOTERS |
|||
|
|
overall |
Male |
Female |
|
CA |
3% |
21% |
-13% |
|
IA |
-1% |
-5% |
2% |
|
MA |
-3% |
-19% |
11% |
|
MN |
-3% |
0% |
-7% |
|
MO |
5% |
14% |
-1% |
|
NM |
-3% |
-3% |
-6% |
|
OH |
1% |
-8% |
7% |
|
OR |
6% |
11% |
4% |
|
WI |
-4% |
-4% |
-3% |
|
*AVG* |
0.1% |
0.8% |
-0.7% |
CHART B-11
|
CHART B-11 DATA –
FEB to APRIL MARGIN CHANGES FOR OBAMA: ALL, MALE &
FEMALE VOTERS |
|||
|
|
overall |
Male |
Female |
|
CA |
-4% |
1% |
-8% |
|
IA |
-2% |
-1% |
-2% |
|
MA |
-5% |
-23% |
10% |
|
MN |
-1% |
0% |
-3% |
|
MO |
-2% |
13% |
-15% |
|
NM |
-13% |
-14% |
-13% |
|
OH |
-12% |
-16% |
-9% |
|
OR |
1% |
-2% |
2% |
|
WI |
-6% |
-1% |
-9% |
|
*AVG* |
-4.9% |
-4.8% |
-5.2% |
CHART B-12
|
CHART B-12 DATA –
Margin Change (versus McCain) Feb. to April,
Clinton Margins
Minus Obama Margins, Overall, Male,
and Female Margins |
|||
|
|
overall |
Male |
Female |
|
CA |
7% |
20% |
-5% |
|
IA |
1% |
-4% |
4% |
|
MA |
2% |
4% |
1% |
|
MN |
-2% |
0% |
-4% |
|
MO |
7% |
1% |
14% |
|
NM |
10% |
11% |
7% |
|
OH |
13% |
8% |
16% |
|
OR |
5% |
13% |
2% |
|
WI |
2% |
-3% |
6% |
|
*AVG* |
5.0% |
5.6% |
4.6% |