| DATA FOR OBAMA’S SOUR APPLES TO APPLES PART
FOUR |
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| Links
to April 11-13 SUSA Polls : |
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California |
Iowa, |
Massachusetts, |
Minnesota, |
Missouri, |
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New
Mexico, |
Ohio, |
Oregon, |
Wisconsin. |
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| Links
to the Feb 26-28 SUSA polls can be found here. |
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| Note:
The “*AVG*” data is the average for the nine states. Data is not weighed to reflect the |
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population differences in
those states. |
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| A full set of relevant data (in an excel file)
is available upon request by writing to |
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Election |
AT |
glcq |
DOT |
com |
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| CHART D-0 |
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CHART D-0 |
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| CHART D-0 DATA
(supplemental)*: Feb to April |
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| Chages in Party and Ideology |
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PARTY |
IDEOLOGY |
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Republic |
Democrat |
Conserva |
Liberal |
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| CA |
-2% |
0% |
-2% |
0% |
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| IA |
5% |
-2% |
0% |
4% |
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| MA |
-2% |
1% |
-1% |
5% |
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| MN |
-2% |
3% |
-5% |
0% |
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| MO |
-4% |
-1% |
1% |
8% |
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| NM |
1% |
1% |
4% |
0% |
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| OH |
5% |
0% |
10% |
3% |
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| OR |
-1% |
4% |
-1% |
6% |
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| WI |
-7% |
-5% |
-1% |
1% |
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| z*AVG* |
-0.8% |
0.1% |
0.6% |
3.0% |
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| *A full breakdown of Party and
Ideology by state |
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is available |
here |
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| CHART D-0 DATA: Feb
to April |
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| Party &
Ideology Bal. Change |
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Dem/GOP
balance |
Lib/Cons
balance |
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| CA |
2% |
2% |
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| IA |
7% |
4% |
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| MA |
3% |
6% |
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| MN |
5% |
5% |
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| MO |
3% |
7% |
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| NM |
0% |
4% |
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| OH |
5% |
7% |
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| OR |
5% |
7% |
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| WI |
2% |
2% |
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| *AVG* |
1% |
2% |
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| CHART D-1 |
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CHART D-1 |
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| CHART D-1 DATA--WHITE VOTERS--SUPPORT |
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Feb HRC |
April HRC |
Feb BHO |
April BHO |
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| CA |
46% |
47% |
51% |
42% |
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| IA |
41% |
41% |
50% |
48% |
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| MA |
54% |
53% |
47% |
48% |
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| MN |
45% |
46% |
48% |
47% |
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| MO |
43% |
46% |
38% |
39% |
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| NM |
40% |
35% |
46% |
34% |
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| OH |
49% |
51% |
47% |
39% |
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| OR |
43% |
49% |
46% |
51% |
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| WI |
46% |
46% |
51% |
47% |
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| *AVG* |
45.2% |
46.0% |
47.1% |
43.9% |
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| CHART D-2 |
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CHART D-2 |
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| CHART D-2
DATA—WHITE |
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| VOTERS—SUPPORT CHANGE |
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HRC
Feb to April Change |
BHO
Feb to April Change |
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| CA |
1% |
-9% |
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| IA |
0% |
-2% |
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| MA |
-1% |
1% |
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| MN |
1% |
-1% |
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| MO |
3% |
1% |
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| NM |
-5% |
-12% |
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| OH |
2% |
-8% |
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| OR |
6% |
5% |
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| WI |
0% |
-4% |
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| *AVG* |
0.8% |
-3.2% |
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| CHART D-3 |
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CHART D-3 |
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| CHART D-3 DATA--WHITE VOTERS--MARGINS |
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Feb HRC |
April HRC |
Feb BHO |
April BHO |
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| CA |
3% |
-2% |
10% |
-11% |
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| IA |
-5% |
-7% |
10% |
6% |
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| MA |
15% |
9% |
3% |
2% |
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| MN |
1% |
-2% |
5% |
2% |
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| MO |
-7% |
-3% |
-14% |
-15% |
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| NM |
-14% |
-26% |
0% |
-27% |
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| OH |
7% |
5% |
5% |
-13% |
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| OR |
-4% |
5% |
3% |
9% |
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| WI |
0% |
-2% |
11% |
1% |
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| *AVG* |
-0.4% |
-2.6% |
3.7% |
-5.1% |
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| CHART D-4 |
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| CHART
D-4 DATA--WHITE VOTERS--CHANGE IN |
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| MARGINS & UNDECIDED VOTERS FEB to APRIL |
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CLINTON |
OBAMA |
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Margin |
Undecided |
Margin |
Undecided |
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| CA |
-5% |
-7% |
-21% |
-3% |
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| IA |
-2% |
-1% |
-4% |
-1% |
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| MA |
-6% |
-4% |
-1% |
-2% |
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| MN |
-3% |
-4% |
-3% |
-1% |
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| MO |
4% |
-2% |
-1% |
-3% |
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| NM |
-12% |
-2% |
-27% |
-3% |
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| OH |
-2% |
-5% |
-18% |
-2% |
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| OR |
9% |
-3% |
6% |
-4% |
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| WI |
-2% |
-1% |
-10% |
-2% |
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| *AVG* |
-2.1% |
-3.2% |
-8.8% |
-2.3% |
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| CHART D-5 |
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| CHART D-5 DATA: 9
STATE RACIAL DEMOGRAPHICS |
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CHART D-5 |
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AVERAGE (Feb and April) |
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Black |
Hispanic |
Other |
White |
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| CA |
6.5% |
26.0% |
13.0% |
54.0% |
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| IA |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
94.5% |
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| MA |
3.5% |
4.5% |
6.0% |
86.0% |
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| MN |
2.5% |
2.0% |
3.5% |
92.5% |
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| MO |
10.0% |
1.0% |
3.0% |
86.5% |
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| NM |
1.5% |
38.0% |
8.5% |
51.5% |
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| OH |
9.5% |
1.5% |
2.0% |
86.5% |
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| OR |
1.5% |
6.5% |
5.5% |
86.0% |
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| WI |
4.0% |
2.0% |
2.5% |
91.5% |
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| *AVG* |
4.6% |
9.3% |
5.1% |
81.0% |
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February |
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Black |
Hispanic |
Other |
White |
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| CA |
7% |
24% |
13% |
55% |
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| IA |
2% |
2% |
2% |
95% |
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| MA |
4% |
3% |
6% |
87% |
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| MN |
2% |
2% |
3% |
93% |
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| MO |
10% |
1% |
3% |
86% |
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| NM |
1% |
37% |
10% |
51% |
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| OH |
10% |
1% |
2% |
87% |
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| OR |
1% |
7% |
5% |
86% |
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| WI |
4% |
2% |
3% |
91% |
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| *AVG* |
4.6% |
8.8% |
5.2% |
81.2% |
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April |
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Black |
Hispanic |
Other |
White |
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| CA |
6% |
28% |
13% |
53% |
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| IA |
2% |
2% |
2% |
94% |
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| MA |
3% |
6% |
6% |
85% |
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| MN |
3% |
2% |
4% |
92% |
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| MO |
10% |
1% |
3% |
87% |
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| NM |
2% |
39% |
7% |
52% |
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| OH |
9% |
2% |
2% |
86% |
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| OR |
2% |
6% |
6% |
86% |
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| WI |
4% |
2% |
2% |
92% |
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| *AVG* |
4.6% |
9.8% |
5.0% |
80.8% |
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| CHART D-6 |
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| CHART D-6 DATA: NON-WHITE voters SUPPORT |
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CHART D-6 |
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Feb HRC |
April HRC |
Feb BHO |
April BHO |
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| Black-MO |
54% |
56% |
74% |
79% |
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| Black-OH |
64% |
73% |
78% |
90% |
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| Hisp-CA |
59% |
62% |
46% |
59% |
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| Hisp-NM |
62% |
61% |
58% |
57% |
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| Other-CA |
42% |
53% |
55% |
48% |
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| Other-NM |
34% |
34% |
44% |
33% |
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| CHART D-7 |
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| CHART D-6 DATA: NON-WHITE voters MARGINS |
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CHART D-7 |
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Feb HRC |
April HRC |
Feb BHO |
April BHO |
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| Black-MO |
28% |
26% |
61% |
59% |
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| Black-OH |
53% |
60% |
58% |
80% |
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| Hisp-CA |
27% |
32% |
5% |
27% |
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| Hisp-NM |
29% |
30% |
21% |
23% |
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| Other-CA |
-12% |
17% |
16% |
11% |
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| Other-NM |
-23% |
-25% |
-2% |
-28% |
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