EXPLATION FOR CHART 1
This chart uses total vote percentages, and unweighed gender percentages for each candidate in the two races (Mcain V Clinton, McCain v Obama), sort them by the percentage of black voters in each state, creates trend lines for each variable, and then shifts the data upward or downward while maintaining the same overall proportions
Here is the original data, sorted by black voter percentages (votes actually means percentage of overall support)
|
MCCAIN VERSUS
OBAMA |
Black |
|
MCCAIN V CLINTON |
||||||||||
|
MCAIN DATA |
OBAMA DATA |
Voter |
|
MCCAIN DATA |
CLINTON DATA |
||||||||
|
votes |
male |
female |
votes |
male |
female |
percentage |
state |
tvotes |
male |
female |
votes |
male |
female |
|
52% |
55% |
48% |
37% |
41% |
39% |
0% |
ID |
63% |
68% |
58% |
27% |
22% |
32% |
|
39% |
46% |
32% |
47% |
58% |
53% |
0% |
ME |
42% |
56% |
30% |
48% |
37% |
58% |
|
47% |
54% |
41% |
36% |
42% |
37% |
0% |
MT |
53% |
57% |
49% |
33% |
29% |
37% |
|
44% |
49% |
40% |
42% |
49% |
46% |
0% |
NH |
49% |
57% |
42% |
41% |
32% |
49% |
|
47% |
49% |
44% |
40% |
45% |
40% |
0% |
SD |
52% |
57% |
47% |
40% |
37% |
44% |
|
29% |
31% |
28% |
63% |
63% |
63% |
0% |
VT |
39% |
45% |
33% |
49% |
42% |
56% |
|
54% |
59% |
49% |
32% |
39% |
35% |
0% |
WY |
61% |
65% |
57% |
28% |
23% |
34% |
|
31% |
35% |
27% |
56% |
66% |
56% |
1% |
HI |
39% |
46% |
32% |
43% |
34% |
53% |
|
42% |
44% |
39% |
45% |
48% |
45% |
1% |
ND |
54% |
59% |
49% |
35% |
28% |
41% |
|
43% |
48% |
38% |
46% |
54% |
46% |
1% |
NM |
47% |
54% |
40% |
47% |
43% |
52% |
|
41% |
46% |
35% |
45% |
52% |
46% |
1% |
OR |
48% |
57% |
40% |
43% |
33% |
52% |
|
50% |
54% |
46% |
36% |
43% |
37% |
1% |
UT |
65% |
71% |
60% |
27% |
22% |
32% |
|
41% |
46% |
37% |
45% |
54% |
50% |
2% |
IA |
46% |
51% |
41% |
41% |
37% |
46% |
|
42% |
47% |
37% |
44% |
53% |
48% |
2% |
MN |
43% |
51% |
35% |
47% |
37% |
57% |
|
38% |
40% |
35% |
51% |
53% |
52% |
2% |
WA |
46% |
51% |
40% |
44% |
38% |
50% |
|
53% |
54% |
52% |
34% |
36% |
34% |
2% |
WV |
42% |
50% |
35% |
47% |
39% |
54% |
|
48% |
54% |
42% |
39% |
47% |
40% |
3% |
AK |
56% |
65% |
46% |
34% |
25% |
43% |
|
51% |
57% |
46% |
33% |
45% |
36% |
3% |
AZ |
54% |
64% |
44% |
39% |
28% |
50% |
|
45% |
48% |
42% |
41% |
43% |
40% |
3% |
NE |
57% |
64% |
51% |
30% |
22% |
37% |
|
41% |
48% |
35% |
42% |
57% |
48% |
4% |
CO |
48% |
60% |
37% |
42% |
26% |
57% |
|
42% |
44% |
40% |
50% |
49% |
47% |
4% |
MA |
37% |
41% |
33% |
55% |
51% |
58% |
|
38% |
44% |
33% |
48% |
57% |
51% |
4% |
RI |
37% |
45% |
29% |
54% |
46% |
61% |
|
40% |
48% |
33% |
43% |
58% |
51% |
4% |
WI |
44% |
52% |
37% |
48% |
40% |
55% |
|
50% |
59% |
42% |
35% |
47% |
40% |
5% |
KS |
51% |
62% |
41% |
42% |
32% |
52% |
|
54% |
59% |
49% |
31% |
35% |
30% |
6% |
KY |
50% |
58% |
43% |
41% |
33% |
48% |
|
41% |
43% |
39% |
43% |
49% |
41% |
6% |
NV |
49% |
57% |
42% |
41% |
33% |
50% |
|
57% |
61% |
54% |
32% |
36% |
31% |
6% |
OK |
50% |
56% |
45% |
42% |
37% |
47% |
|
40% |
43% |
37% |
49% |
53% |
51% |
7% |
CA |
40% |
51% |
31% |
50% |
37% |
62% |
|
34% |
36% |
33% |
52% |
57% |
51% |
8% |
CT |
40% |
50% |
32% |
50% |
40% |
59% |
|
50% |
51% |
48% |
39% |
43% |
37% |
8% |
IN |
53% |
57% |
49% |
36% |
32% |
41% |
|
47% |
52% |
43% |
41% |
43% |
40% |
8% |
PA |
46% |
54% |
39% |
47% |
38% |
55% |
|
47% |
50% |
45% |
45% |
46% |
34% |
9% |
TX |
49% |
54% |
44% |
42% |
38% |
47% |
|
48% |
54% |
42% |
39% |
44% |
38% |
10% |
MO |
48% |
56% |
41% |
44% |
38% |
48% |
|
40% |
40% |
40% |
49% |
51% |
47% |
10% |
OH |
40% |
42% |
37% |
50% |
47% |
53% |
|
47% |
43% |
51% |
52% |
39% |
39% |
12% |
FL |
42% |
44% |
40% |
51% |
49% |
53% |
|
31% |
36% |
26% |
59% |
62% |
57% |
12% |
IL |
37% |
48% |
27% |
48% |
38% |
56% |
|
43% |
53% |
35% |
37% |
48% |
37% |
12% |
NJ |
42% |
49% |
36% |
47% |
40% |
53% |
|
53% |
55% |
50% |
30% |
36% |
25% |
13% |
AR |
40% |
44% |
35% |
51% |
45% |
57% |
|
45% |
51% |
39% |
43% |
49% |
39% |
13% |
MI |
44% |
55% |
35% |
44% |
36% |
52% |
|
38% |
48% |
29% |
43% |
60% |
46% |
13% |
NY |
33% |
41% |
26% |
55% |
44% |
65% |
|
54% |
53% |
55% |
39% |
37% |
30% |
14% |
TN |
46% |
48% |
45% |
46% |
42% |
49% |
|
41% |
44% |
38% |
49% |
52% |
42% |
17% |
DE |
41% |
48% |
35% |
46% |
37% |
54% |
|
47% |
50% |
44% |
45% |
49% |
37% |
18% |
VA |
50% |
56% |
44% |
40% |
37% |
44% |
|
47% |
52% |
41% |
41% |
49% |
33% |
19% |
NC |
49% |
57% |
40% |
41% |
36% |
47% |
|
54% |
55% |
53% |
39% |
40% |
24% |
23% |
AL |
51% |
55% |
48% |
41% |
40% |
41% |
|
40% |
45% |
35% |
48% |
58% |
41% |
23% |
MD |
40% |
48% |
33% |
49% |
40% |
58% |
|
48% |
55% |
43% |
39% |
51% |
28% |
25% |
SC |
48% |
54% |
43% |
42% |
38% |
46% |
|
54% |
61% |
47% |
36% |
46% |
25% |
26% |
GA |
56% |
61% |
51% |
35% |
31% |
38% |
|
54% |
58% |
51% |
36% |
42% |
18% |
30% |
LA |
51% |
57% |
45% |
41% |
34% |
47% |
|
54% |
57% |
51% |
40% |
42% |
20% |
33% |
MS |
51% |
56% |
46% |
42% |
36% |
46% |
The values above were added to the numbers below…..
|
MCAIN DATA |
OBAMA DATA |
Black |
|
MCCAIN DATA |
CLINTON DATA |
||||||||
|
votes |
male |
female |
votes |
male |
female |
vpters |
state |
tvotes |
male |
female |
votes |
male |
female |
|
0.45 |
0.45 |
0.45 |
0.45 |
0.45 |
0.45 |
0.65 |
|
0.15 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
Resulting in the values seen below – retaining the proper proportion of each trend line,
|
MCCAIN VERSUS
OBAMA |
Black |
|
MCCAIN V CLINTON |
||||||||||
|
MCAIN DATA |
OBAMA DATA |
Voter |
|
MCCAIN DATA |
CLINTON DATA |
||||||||
|
votes |
male |
female |
votes |
male |
female |
percentage |
state |
tvotes |
male |
female |
votes |
male |
female |
|
97% |
100% |
93% |
82% |
86% |
84% |
65% |
ID |
78% |
83% |
73% |
42% |
37% |
47% |
|
84% |
91% |
77% |
92% |
103% |
98% |
65% |
ME |
57% |
71% |
45% |
63% |
52% |
73% |
|
92% |
99% |
86% |
81% |
87% |
82% |
65% |
MT |
68% |
72% |
64% |
48% |
44% |
52% |
|
89% |
94% |
85% |
87% |
94% |
91% |
65% |
NH |
64% |
72% |
57% |
56% |
47% |
64% |
|
92% |
94% |
89% |
85% |
90% |
85% |
65% |
SD |
67% |
72% |
62% |
55% |
52% |
59% |
|
74% |
76% |
73% |
108% |
108% |
108% |
65% |
VT |
54% |
60% |
48% |
64% |
57% |
71% |
|
99% |
104% |
94% |
77% |
84% |
80% |
65% |
WY |
76% |
80% |
72% |
43% |
38% |
49% |
|
76% |
80% |
72% |
101% |
111% |
101% |
66% |
HI |
54% |
61% |
47% |
58% |
49% |
68% |
|
87% |
89% |
84% |
90% |
93% |
90% |
66% |
ND |
69% |
74% |
64% |
50% |
43% |
56% |
|
88% |
93% |
83% |
91% |
99% |
91% |
66% |
NM |
62% |
69% |
55% |
62% |
58% |
67% |
|
86% |
91% |
80% |
90% |
97% |
91% |
66% |
OR |
63% |
72% |
55% |
58% |
48% |
67% |
|
95% |
99% |
91% |
81% |
88% |
82% |
66% |
UT |
80% |
86% |
75% |
42% |
37% |
47% |
|
86% |
91% |
82% |
90% |
99% |
95% |
67% |
IA |
61% |
66% |
56% |
56% |
52% |
61% |
|
87% |
92% |
82% |
89% |
98% |
93% |
67% |
MN |
58% |
66% |
50% |
62% |
52% |
72% |
|
83% |
85% |
80% |
96% |
98% |
97% |
67% |
WA |
61% |
66% |
55% |
59% |
53% |
65% |
|
98% |
99% |
97% |
79% |
81% |
79% |
67% |
WV |
57% |
65% |
50% |
62% |
54% |
69% |
|
93% |
99% |
87% |
84% |
92% |
85% |
68% |
AK |
71% |
80% |
61% |
49% |
40% |
58% |
|
96% |
102% |
91% |
78% |
90% |
81% |
68% |
AZ |
69% |
79% |
59% |
54% |
43% |
65% |
|
90% |
93% |
87% |
86% |
88% |
85% |
68% |
NE |
72% |
79% |
66% |
45% |
37% |
52% |
|
86% |
93% |
80% |
87% |
102% |
93% |
69% |
CO |
63% |
75% |
52% |
57% |
41% |
72% |
|
87% |
89% |
85% |
95% |
94% |
92% |
69% |
MA |
52% |
56% |
48% |
70% |
66% |
73% |
|
83% |
89% |
78% |
93% |
102% |
96% |
69% |
RI |
52% |
60% |
44% |
69% |
61% |
76% |
|
85% |
93% |
78% |
88% |
103% |
96% |
69% |
WI |
59% |
67% |
52% |
63% |
55% |
70% |
|
95% |
104% |
87% |
80% |
92% |
85% |
70% |
KS |
66% |
77% |
56% |
57% |
47% |
67% |
|
99% |
104% |
94% |
76% |
80% |
75% |
71% |
KY |
65% |
73% |
58% |
56% |
48% |
63% |
|
86% |
88% |
84% |
88% |
94% |
86% |
71% |
NV |
64% |
72% |
57% |
56% |
48% |
65% |
|
102% |
106% |
99% |
77% |
81% |
76% |
71% |
OK |
65% |
71% |
60% |
57% |
52% |
62% |
|
85% |
88% |
82% |
94% |
98% |
96% |
72% |
CA |
55% |
66% |
46% |
65% |
52% |
77% |
|
79% |
81% |
78% |
97% |
102% |
96% |
73% |
CT |
55% |
65% |
47% |
65% |
55% |
74% |
|
95% |
96% |
93% |
84% |
88% |
82% |
73% |
IN |
68% |
72% |
64% |
51% |
47% |
56% |
|
92% |
97% |
88% |
86% |
88% |
85% |
73% |
PA |
61% |
69% |
54% |
62% |
53% |
70% |
|
92% |
95% |
90% |
90% |
91% |
79% |
74% |
TX |
64% |
69% |
59% |
57% |
53% |
62% |
|
93% |
99% |
87% |
84% |
89% |
83% |
75% |
MO |
63% |
71% |
56% |
59% |
53% |
63% |
|
85% |
85% |
85% |
94% |
96% |
92% |
75% |
OH |
55% |
57% |
52% |
65% |
62% |
68% |
|
92% |
88% |
96% |
97% |
84% |
84% |
77% |
FL |
57% |
59% |
55% |
66% |
64% |
68% |
|
76% |
81% |
71% |
104% |
107% |
102% |
77% |
IL |
52% |
63% |
42% |
63% |
53% |
71% |
|
88% |
98% |
80% |
82% |
93% |
82% |
77% |
NJ |
57% |
64% |
51% |
62% |
55% |
68% |
|
98% |
100% |
95% |
75% |
81% |
70% |
78% |
AR |
55% |
59% |
50% |
66% |
60% |
72% |
|
90% |
96% |
84% |
88% |
94% |
84% |
78% |
MI |
59% |
70% |
50% |
59% |
51% |
67% |
|
83% |
93% |
74% |
88% |
105% |
91% |
78% |
NY |
48% |
56% |
41% |
70% |
59% |
80% |
|
99% |
98% |
100% |
84% |
82% |
75% |
79% |
TN |
61% |
63% |
60% |
61% |
57% |
64% |
|
86% |
89% |
83% |
94% |
97% |
87% |
82% |
DE |
56% |
63% |
50% |
61% |
52% |
69% |
|
92% |
95% |
89% |
90% |
94% |
82% |
83% |
VA |
65% |
71% |
59% |
55% |
52% |
59% |
|
92% |
97% |
86% |
86% |
94% |
78% |
84% |
NC |
64% |
72% |
55% |
56% |
51% |
62% |
|
99% |
100% |
98% |
84% |
85% |
69% |
88% |
AL |
66% |
70% |
63% |
56% |
55% |
56% |
|
85% |
90% |
80% |
93% |
103% |
86% |
88% |
MD |
55% |
63% |
48% |
64% |
55% |
73% |
|
93% |
100% |
88% |
84% |
96% |
73% |
90% |
SC |
63% |
69% |
58% |
57% |
53% |
61% |
|
99% |
106% |
92% |
81% |
91% |
70% |
91% |
GA |
71% |
76% |
66% |
50% |
46% |
53% |
|
99% |
103% |
96% |
81% |
87% |
63% |
95% |
LA |
66% |
72% |
60% |
56% |
49% |
62% |
|
99% |
102% |
96% |
85% |
87% |
65% |
98% |
MS |
66% |
71% |
61% |
57% |
51% |
61% |
The resulting chart looks like this

without the adjustments, it looks like this

Which is really a mess.