CHART THREE is based on pretty straight-forward data from the SUSA 50 state survey. The trend lines are all “linear”. Clinton total %, Obama total %, Black voter %, and GOP %, are all straight from the original SUSA data for each state. The Obama white %,, and Clinton male % and Obama male % are all weighed data, i.e. the represent the percentage of the overall electorate, rather than a percentage of the white, male, or female vote itself, in order to better define the impact of the percentages on the total margins.
The far right column which state’s data was included in the “subsets” presented back on the percentage of Black Voters in the state
BLACK VOTER PERCENTAGE SUBSETS |
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|
LOW |
|
MEDIUM |
|
HIGH |
|
0% to 5% |
|
4% to 19% |
|
17%
to 33% |
|
Black
Voters |
|
Black
Voters |
|
Black
Voters |
|
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DATA FOR CHART THREE |
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|
Clinton total % |
Clinton male % |
Obama male % |
Obama total % |
Obama white % |
Black voter % |
GOP % |
States |
|
|
49% |
20.2% |
29.1% |
63% |
61.1% |
0% |
22% |
VT |
|
|
48% |
17.8% |
30.2% |
53% |
51.4% |
0% |
27% |
ME |
|
|
41% |
15.7% |
25.0% |
46% |
44.2% |
0% |
28% |
NH |
|
|
33% |
14.2% |
18.9% |
39% |
34.0% |
0% |
34% |
MT |
|
|
40% |
17.4% |
23.3% |
43% |
36.8% |
0% |
43% |
SD |
|
|
27% |
11.7% |
15.0% |
39% |
35.5% |
0% |
44% |
ID |
|
|
28% |
12.0% |
16.3% |
35% |
32.2% |
0% |
45% |
WY |
ONLY |
|
43% |
17.3% |
26.0% |
61% |
15.7% |
1% |
23% |
HI |
LOW |
|
35% |
14.0% |
20.5% |
46% |
41.9% |
1% |
31% |
ND |
BLACK |
|
43% |
16.5% |
26.0% |
49% |
39.6% |
1% |
33% |
OR |
VOTER |
|
47% |
20.6% |
27.0% |
50% |
23.5% |
1% |
33% |
NM |
PERCENT |
|
27% |
11.4% |
15.4% |
39% |
32.9% |
1% |
48% |
UT |
SUBSET |
|
44% |
19.0% |
25.0% |
52% |
43.2% |
2% |
26% |
WA |
|
|
41% |
18.5% |
23.0% |
50% |
47.5% |
2% |
27% |
IA |
|
|
47% |
17.8% |
29.6% |
49% |
44.6% |
2% |
29% |
MN |
|
|
47% |
18.3% |
28.6% |
35% |
32.3% |
2% |
31% |
WV |
|
|
34% |
12.5% |
21.5% |
43% |
30.0% |
3% |
31% |
AK |
|
|
39% |
13.7% |
25.5% |
39% |
26.3% |
3% |
41% |
AZ |
|
|
30% |
10.8% |
18.9% |
42% |
36.8% |
3% |
42% |
NE |
|
|
54% |
22.1% |
31.7% |
53% |
45.4% |
4% |
16% |
RI |
LOW & |
|
55% |
24.0% |
30.7% |
49% |
40.9% |
4% |
18% |
MA |
MEDIUM |
|
48% |
19.2% |
28.6% |
51% |
46.4% |
4% |
28% |
WI |
BLACK |
|
42% |
12.5% |
29.6% |
50% |
37.4% |
4% |
33% |
CO |
VOTE % |
|
42% |
15.4% |
27.0% |
41% |
34.8% |
5% |
42% |
KS |
SUBSET |
|
41% |
16.8% |
24.5% |
46% |
29.1% |
6% |
36% |
NV |
|
|
41% |
15.8% |
25.0% |
33% |
27.3% |
6% |
39% |
KY |
|
|
42% |
17.8% |
24.4% |
34% |
25.1% |
6% |
39% |
OK |
|
|
50% |
17.4% |
32.9% |
51% |
28.1% |
7% |
33% |
CA |
|
|
50% |
18.8% |
31.3% |
55% |
40.8% |
8% |
24% |
CT |
|
|
47% |
18.2% |
28.6% |
42% |
34.8% |
8% |
35% |
PA |
ONLY |
|
36% |
15.7% |
20.9% |
41% |
32.9% |
8% |
37% |
IN |
MEDIUM |
|
42% |
18.2% |
24.4% |
46% |
19.7% |
9% |
34% |
TX |
BLACK |
|
50% |
22.1% |
28.1% |
50% |
40.9% |
10% |
26% |
OH |
VOTER |
|
44% |
17.9% |
25.4% |
42% |
32.7% |
10% |
28% |
MO |
PERCENT |
|
47% |
18.8% |
28.1% |
43% |
26.3% |
12% |
24% |
NJ |
SUBSET |
|
48% |
17.5% |
30.2% |
60% |
42.2% |
12% |
25% |
IL |
|
|
51% |
23.0% |
28.1% |
45% |
26.5% |
12% |
36% |
FL |
|
|
55% |
20.2% |
35.1% |
52% |
30.4% |
13% |
26% |
NY |
|
|
44% |
16.9% |
27.6% |
46% |
32.0% |
13% |
27% |
MI |
|
|
51% |
22.5% |
28.5% |
33% |
21.3% |
13% |
27% |
AR |
|
|
46% |
20.6% |
25.0% |
38% |
24.6% |
14% |
37% |
TN |
|
|
46% |
17.4% |
28.6% |
50% |
32.8% |
17% |
28% |
DE |
Med &
High |
|
40% |
18.1% |
22.4% |
47% |
27.0% |
18% |
29% |
VA |
BLACK % |
|
41% |
17.6% |
24.0% |
45% |
24.8% |
19% |
38% |
NC |
SUBSET |
|
49% |
18.8% |
30.7% |
53% |
27.9% |
23% |
29% |
MD |
ONLY |
|
41% |
18.4% |
22.1% |
40% |
17.8% |
23% |
39% |
AL |
HIGH |
|
42% |
17.9% |
24.4% |
45% |
20.2% |
25% |
38% |
SC |
BLACK |
|
35% |
14.9% |
19.8% |
41% |
17.0% |
26% |
38% |
GA |
VOTER |
|
41% |
16.7% |
24.0% |
39% |
11.9% |
30% |
35% |
LA |
PERCENT |
|
42% |
17.3% |
23.9% |
41% |
13.0% |
33% |
40% |
MS |
SUBSET |