CHART THREE is based on pretty straight-forward data from the SUSA 50 state survey. The trend lines are all “linear”. Clinton total %, Obama total %, Black voter %, and GOP %, are all straight from the original SUSA data for each state. The Obama white %,, and Clinton male % and Obama male % are all weighed data, i.e. the represent the percentage of the overall electorate, rather than a percentage of the white, male, or female vote itself, in order to better define the impact of the percentages on the total margins.

The far right column which state’s data was included in the “subsets” presented back on the percentage of Black Voters in the state

BLACK VOTER PERCENTAGE SUBSETS
LOW	MEDIUM	HIGH
0% to 5%	4% to 19%	17% to 33%
Black Voters	Black Voters	Black Voters

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DATA FOR CHART THREE
Clinton total %	Clinton male %	Obama male %	Obama total %	Obama white %	Black voter %	GOP %	States
49%	20.2%	29.1%	63%	61.1%	0%	22%	VT
48%	17.8%	30.2%	53%	51.4%	0%	27%	ME
41%	15.7%	25.0%	46%	44.2%	0%	28%	NH
33%	14.2%	18.9%	39%	34.0%	0%	34%	MT
40%	17.4%	23.3%	43%	36.8%	0%	43%	SD
27%	11.7%	15.0%	39%	35.5%	0%	44%	ID
28%	12.0%	16.3%	35%	32.2%	0%	45%	WY	ONLY
43%	17.3%	26.0%	61%	15.7%	1%	23%	HI	LOW
35%	14.0%	20.5%	46%	41.9%	1%	31%	ND	BLACK
43%	16.5%	26.0%	49%	39.6%	1%	33%	OR	VOTER
47%	20.6%	27.0%	50%	23.5%	1%	33%	NM	PERCENT
27%	11.4%	15.4%	39%	32.9%	1%	48%	UT	SUBSET
44%	19.0%	25.0%	52%	43.2%	2%	26%	WA
41%	18.5%	23.0%	50%	47.5%	2%	27%	IA
47%	17.8%	29.6%	49%	44.6%	2%	29%	MN
47%	18.3%	28.6%	35%	32.3%	2%	31%	WV
34%	12.5%	21.5%	43%	30.0%	3%	31%	AK
39%	13.7%	25.5%	39%	26.3%	3%	41%	AZ
30%	10.8%	18.9%	42%	36.8%	3%	42%	NE