DATA AND EXPLANATION OF CHARTS FOR ADDENDUM (SOUTH CAROLINA)
Contents
EXPLANATION FOR CHARTS A1 AND A2
DATA FOR CHARTS A1 and A2
NOTES ON SC PRIMARY POLLING
SUSA POLLING DATA (DERIVED GENDER GAP, UNDECIDED BY GENDER, UNWEIGHED AND WEIGHED)
SUSA POLLING DATA (WHITE AND BLACK VOTERS, UNWEIGHED AND WEIGHED)
SUSA POLLING DATA (RACE AND GENDER, UNWEIGHED AND WEIGHED)
EXPLANATION FOR CHARTS A1 AND A2
Chart A1 uses all the data in the table below (except for the Edwards Black Voter Percentages, which were not charted). The color of the text corresponds to the color of the line used (gender gap data is shaded to make it easier to read). Dotted lines were used to indicate Black voter Percentages.
Chart A2 used only the Gender Gap data to create trendlines for the Gender Gap which extended .05 “periods” beyond the actual polling.
|
SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY
POLLS (Gender Gap, Black and White percentages) |
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|
UNWEIGHED |
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|
dates |
Gender Gap |
|
White Voter Percentages |
|
Black Voter
Percentages |
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|
|
Clinton |
Edwards |
Obama |
|
Clinton |
Edwards |
Obama |
|
Clinton |
Edwards |
Obama |
|
Nov 9-11 |
-30% |
1% |
22% |
|
55% |
17% |
15% |
|
39% |
3% |
52% |
|
Dec 7-9 |
-29% |
5% |
22% |
|
51% |
23% |
19% |
|
39% |
2% |
56% |
|
Dec 17-18 |
-22% |
6% |
15% |
|
46% |
32% |
18% |
|
37% |
5% |
57% |
|
Jan 4-6 |
-7% |
-1% |
7% |
|
38% |
28% |
29% |
|
23% |
4% |
69% |
|
Jan 16-17 |
-7% |
3% |
2% |
|
50% |
26% |
22% |
|
20% |
3% |
74% |
|
Jan 23-24 |
-6% |
6% |
-2% |
|
38% |
38% |
21% |
|
18% |
6% |
73% |
|
Exit (jan 26) |
-7% |
7% |
0% |
|
36% |
40% |
24% |
|
19% |
2% |
78% |
While the SUSA final polling seem accurate in terms of racial distribution of votes between candidates, the percentages of men and women, and the gender gap itself, there is a huge discrepancy between the racial demographic breakdown, and (as a result) the actual levels of male and female support of the three candidates as shown in the exit polls. The second poll cited (from December 7-9) was merely one point off in terms of the percentages of Black and White voters overall, but over time SUSA’s racial breakdown became steadily “more White”, until it wound up a mirror image of the final results (exit polls showed that the electorate was 55% Black, 43% White, the final SUSA poll had it 43% Black, 55% White.)
The exit polls show that the gender gap among White voters was far greater than that for Black voters – only 2% more Black men than Black women voted for Obama (and 3% more Black women than Black men voted for Clinton), while 5% more White males than White females voted for Obama, and 12% more White females that White males voted for Clinton.
This difference in how White and Black men and women mean that small changes in the gender gap that were seen may not be significant -- but because the shift to “too White” was gradual, the changes that are seen between individual polls are isgnficiant in general. A 10 point change in the gender gap for a candidate between two polls may, in fact, only be an 8 point drop, or a 10 point drop. Nevertheless, the cumulative distortion is significant – so much so that the final SUSA poll had Obama with 44% of the female vote, and the exit poll had him with 54% of the female vote. (Then again, it must be noted that according to the exit polls, Black and White voters combined made up 98% of the electorate, and given that there was a +2% Black male vote for Obama, and a +5 male vote for Obama, Obama’s total male and female numbers could not both be 54%.)
Below are tables with all the relevant polling data. Although only unweighed data was used for the tables, weighed data is provided for comparison purposes.
SUSA POLLING DATA (DERIVED GENDER GAP, UNDECIDED BY GENDER, UNWEIGHED AND WEIGHED)
|
SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY
POLLS (gender gap) |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
UNWEIGHED |
|
|
|
|
|
|
WEIGHED |
|
|
|
|
dates |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Obama |
Undecided |
Undecided |
|
dates |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Obama |
|
|
g gap |
g gap |
g gap |
male |
female |
|
|
g gap |
g gap |
g gap |
|
Nov 9-11 |
-30% |
1% |
22% |
15% |
8% |
|
Nov 9-11 |
-25.3% |
-1.8% |
2.4% |
|
Dec 7-9 |
-29% |
5% |
22% |
7% |
5% |
|
Dec 7-9 |
-22.6% |
0.2% |
2.6% |
|
Dec 17-18 |
-22% |
6% |
15% |
3% |
2% |
|
Dec 17-18 |
-18.8% |
-0.6% |
-0.6% |
|
Jan 4-6 |
-7% |
-1% |
7% |
5% |
4% |
|
Jan 4-6 |
-8.2% |
-3.0% |
-4.6% |
|
Jan 16-17 |
-7% |
3% |
2% |
4% |
2% |
|
Jan 16-17 |
-9.9% |
-1.3% |
-7.3% |
|
Jan 23-24 |
-6% |
6% |
-2% |
5% |
3% |
|
Jan 23-24 |
-8.2% |
-1.3% |
-8.7% |
|
Exit (jan 26) |
-7% |
7% |
0% |
|
|
|
Exit (jan 26) |
-9.3% |
-0.8% |
-11.9% |
SUSA POLLING DATA (WHITE AND BLACK VOTERS, UNWEIGHED AND WEIGHED)
|
SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY
POLLS (race) |
|
|
SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY
POLLS (race) |
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|
UNWEIGHED |
|
|
|
|
|
|
WEIGHED |
|
|
|
|
|
WHITE VOTERS |
|
|
WHITE VOTERS |
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|
Date |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Obama |
Undecided |
Distribution |
|
Date |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Obama |
Undecided |
|
Nov 9-11 |
55% |
17% |
15% |
13% |
48% |
|
Nov 9-11 |
26.4% |
8.2% |
7.2% |
6.2% |
|
Dec 7-9 |
51% |
23% |
19% |
7% |
44% |
|
Dec 7-9 |
22.4% |
10.1% |
8.4% |
3.1% |
|
Dec 17-18 |
46% |
32% |
18% |
4% |
45% |
|
Dec 17-18 |
20.7% |
14.4% |
8.1% |
1.8% |
|
Jan 4-6 |
38% |
28% |
29% |
5% |
47% |
|
Jan 4-6 |
17.9% |
13.2% |
13.6% |
2.4% |
|
Jan 16-17 |
50% |
26% |
22% |
2% |
53% |
|
Jan 16-17 |
26.5% |
13.8% |
11.7% |
1.1% |
|
Jan 23-24 |
38% |
38% |
21% |
3% |
55% |
|
Jan 23-24 |
20.9% |
20.9% |
11.6% |
1.7% |
|
Exit (jan 26) |
36% |
40% |
24% |
|
43% |
|
Exit (jan 26) |
15.5% |
17.2% |
10.3% |
|
|
|
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|
UNWEIGHED |
|
WEIGHED |
|||||||||
|
BLACK VOTERS |
|
|
BLACK VOTERS |
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|
Date |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Obama |
Undecided |
Distribution |
|
Date |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Obama |
Undecided |
|
Nov 9-11 |
39% |
3% |
52% |
6% |
49% |
|
Nov 9-11 |
19.1% |
1.5% |
25.5% |
2.9% |
|
Dec 7-9 |
39% |
2% |
56% |
3% |
54% |
|
Dec 7-9 |
21.1% |
1.1% |
30.2% |
1.6% |
|
Dec 17-18 |
37% |
5% |
57% |
1% |
53% |
|
Dec 17-18 |
19.6% |
2.7% |
30.2% |
0.5% |
|
Jan 4-6 |
23% |
4% |
69% |
4% |
51% |
|
Jan 4-6 |
11.7% |
2.0% |
35.2% |
2.0% |
|
Jan 16-17 |
20% |
3% |
74% |
3% |
45% |
|
Jan 16-17 |
9.0% |
1.4% |
33.3% |
1.4% |
|
Jan 23-24 |
18% |
6% |
73% |
3% |
42% |
|
Jan 23-24 |
7.6% |
2.5% |
30.7% |
1.3% |
|
Exit (jan 26) |
19% |
2% |
78% |
|
55% |
|
Exit (jan 26) |
10.5% |
1.1% |
42.9% |
|
SUSA POLLING DATA (RACE AND GENDER, UNWEIGHED AND WEIGHED)
|
UNWEIGHED |
|
WEIGHED |
||||||||||||||
|
SOUTH CAROLINA SUSA
POLLING |
|
SOUTH CAROLINA SUSA
POLLING |
||||||||||||||
|
Nov 9-11 |
Total |
Male |
Female |
White |
Black |
Gender Gap |
|
|
Nov 9-11 |
Total |
Male |
Female |
White |
Black |
Gender Gap |
|
|
Clinton |
47% |
28% |
58% |
55% |
39% |
-30% |
|
|
Clinton |
47% |
10.6% |
36.0% |
26.4% |
19.1% |
-25.3% |
|
|
Edwards |
10% |
10% |
9% |
17% |
3% |
1% |
|
|
Edwards |
10% |
3.8% |
5.6% |
8.2% |
1.5% |
-1.8% |
|
|
Obama |
33% |
47% |
25% |
15% |
52% |
22% |
|
|
Obama |
33% |
17.9% |
15.5% |
7.2% |
25.5% |
2.4% |
|
|
Dist |
|
38% |
62% |
48% |
49% |
-24% |
|
|
Dist |
|
38% |
62% |
48% |
49% |
-24.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 7-9 |
Total |
Male |
Female |
White |
Black |
Gender Gap |
|
|
Dec 7-9 |
Total |
Male |
Female |
White |
Black |
Gender Gap |
|
|
Clinton |
44% |
26% |
55% |
51% |
39% |
-29% |
|
|
Clinton |
44% |
10.4% |
33.0% |
22.4% |
21.1% |
-22.6% |
|
|
Edwards |
11% |
14% |
9% |
23% |
2% |
5% |
|
|
Edwards |
11% |
5.6% |
5.4% |
10.1% |
1.1% |
0.2% |
|
|
Obama |
40% |
53% |
31% |
19% |
56% |
22% |
|
|
Obama |
40% |
21.2% |
18.6% |
8.4% |
30.2% |
2.6% |
|
|
Dist |
3% |
40% |
60% |
44% |
54% |
-20% |
|
|
Dist |
|
40% |
60% |
44% |
54% |
-20.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 17-18 |
Total |
Male |
Female |
White |
Black |
Gender Gap |
|
|
Dec 17-18 |
Total |
Male |
Female |
White |
Black |
Gender Gap |
|
|
Clinton |
41% |
28% |
50% |
46% |
37% |
-22% |
|
|
Clinton |
41% |
11.2% |
30.0% |
20.7% |
19.6% |
-18.8% |
|
|
Edwards |
17% |
21% |
15% |
32% |
5% |
6% |
|
|
Edwards |
17% |
8.4% |
9.0% |
14.4% |
2.7% |
-0.6% |
|
|
Obama |
39% |
48% |
33% |
18% |
57% |
15% |
|
|
Obama |
39% |
19.2% |
19.8% |
8.1% |
30.2% |
-0.6% |
|
|
Dist |
1% |
40% |
60% |
45% |
53% |
-20% |
|
|
Dist |
|
40% |
60% |
45% |
53% |
-20.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan 4-6 |
Total |
Male |
Female |
White |
Black |
Gender Gap |
|
|
Jan 4-6 |
Total |
Male |
Female |
White |
Black |
Gender Gap |
|
|
Clinton |
30% |
26% |
33% |
38% |
23% |
-7% |
|
|
Clinton |
30% |
10.9% |
19.1% |
17.9% |
11.7% |
-8.2% |
|
|
Edwards |
16% |
15% |
16% |
28% |
4% |
-1% |
|
|
Edwards |
16% |
6.3% |
9.3% |
13.2% |
2.0% |
-3.0% |
|
|
Obama |
50% |
54% |
47% |
29% |
69% |
7% |
|
|
Obama |
50% |
22.7% |
27.3% |
13.6% |
35.2% |
-4.6% |
|
|
Dist |
|
42% |
58% |
47% |
51% |
-16% |
|
|
Dist |
|
42% |
58% |
47% |
51% |
-16.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan 16-17 |
Total |
Male |
Female |
White |
Black |
Gender Gap |
|
|
Jan 16-17 |
Total |
Male |
Female |
White |
Black |
Gender Gap |
|
|
Clinton |
36% |
32% |
39% |
50% |
20% |
-7% |
|
|
Clinton |
36% |
13.1% |
23.0% |
26.5% |
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