DATA AND METHODOLOGY USED FOR THE POISONED LANDSCAPE
OVERVIEW OF DATA COLLECTION AND CALCULATIONS
EXPLANATION OF CHART ONE, AND ASSOCIATED DATA, IS HERE
EXPLANATION OF CHART TWO, AND ASSOCIATED DATA, IS HERE
EXPLANATION OF CHART THREE, AND ASSOCIATED DATA, IS HERE
DATA AND EXPLANATION OF CHARTS FOR ADDENDUM (SOUTH CAROLINA) , IS HERE
DATA AND EXPLANATION OF CHARTS FOR ADDENDUM (OHIO) , IS HERE
(an excel spreadsheet with all data used for the charts in The Poisoned Landscape (including associated data) is available from the author upon request by writing to election AT glcq DOT com )
The primary data for this study is the 50 State Survey USA (SUSA) poll. Data for each state (linked from the main page) was copied and pasted into a spreadsheet then formatted and organized to make it easier to work with, and calculations were done to weigh the data. Thus this from Alabama.
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All |
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|
Republic |
|
McCain |
51% |
55% |
48% |
62% |
19% |
84% |
|
Clinton |
41% |
40% |
41% |
33% |
61% |
12% |
|
Undecided |
8% |
5% |
11% |
5% |
19% |
4% |
|
Total |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
Composition
of Registered Voters |
100% |
46% |
54% |
74% |
23% |
39% |
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|
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|
All |
|
|
|
|
|
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McCain |
54% |
55% |
53% |
69% |
9% |
84% |
|
Obama |
40% |
39% |
40% |
24% |
89% |
14% |
|
Undecided |
6% |
6% |
7% |
7% |
2% |
3% |
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Total |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
Composition
of Registered Voters |
100% |
46% |
54% |
74% |
23% |
39% |
Turned into this, with the weighed data being the product of
the category percentage times its composition. (i.e, McCain v Clinton Unweighed Male vote for McCain is 55%, time 46%
is equal to 25.3%
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UNWEIGHED |
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M
v C |
M v C |
M v C |
M v C |
M v C |
M v C |
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All |
Male |
Female |
White |
Black |
Republic |
|
McCain |
51% |
55% |
48% |
62% |
19% |
84% |
|
Clinton |
41% |
40% |
41% |
33% |
61% |
12% |
|
Undecided |
8% |
5% |
11% |
5% |
19% |
4% |
|
Composition |
100% |
46% |
54% |
74% |
23% |
39% |
|
|
M
v O |
M v O |
M v O |
M v O |
M v O |
M v O |
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|
All |
Male |
Female |
White |
Black |
Republic |
|
McCain |
54% |
55% |
53% |
69% |
9% |
84% |
|
Obama |
40% |
39% |
40% |
24% |
89% |
14% |
|
Undecided |
6% |
6% |
7% |
7% |
2% |
3% |
|
Composition |
100% |
46% |
54% |
74% |
23% |
39% |
|
WEIGHED |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
M v C |
M v C |
M v C |
M v C |
M v C |
M v C |
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|
All |
Male |
Female |
White |
Black |
Republic |
|
McCain |
51% |
25.3% |
25.9% |
45.9% |
4.4% |
32.8% |
|
Clinton |
41% |
18.4% |
22.1% |
24.4% |
14.0% |
4.7% |
|
Undecided |
8% |
2.3% |
5.9% |
3.7% |
4.4% |
1.6% |
|
|
M
v O |
M v O |
M v O |
M v O |
M v O |
M v O |
|
|
All |
Male |
Female |
White |
Black |
Republic |
|
McCain |
54% |
25.3% |
28.6% |
51.1% |
2.1% |
32.8% |
|
Obama |
40% |
17.9% |
21.6% |
17.8% |
20.5% |
5.5% |
|
Undecided |
6% |
2.8% |
3.8% |
5.2% |
0.5% |
1.2% |
Which was put in to linear fashion (this is truncated)
|
Unweighed |
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|
McCain
V |
Clinton |
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McCain
V |
Clinton |
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|
McCain
V |
Obama |
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McCain
V |
Obama |
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|||
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All |
Male |
Female |
McCain
|
All |
Male |
Female |
Clinton |
All |
Male |
Female |
McCain
|
All |
Male |
Female |
Obama |
All |
Male |
Female |
|
Composition |
100% |
46.0% |
54.0% |
McCain |
51% |
55% |
48% |
Clinton |
41% |
40% |
41% |
McCain |
54% |
55% |
53% |
Obama |
41% |
40% |
41% |
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Weighed
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McCain
V |
Clinton |
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McCain
V |
Clinton |
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McCain
V |
Obama |
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McCain
V |
Obama |
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All |
Male |
Female |
McCain
|
All |
Male |
Female |
Clinton |
All |
Male |
Female |
McCain
|
All |
Male |
Female |
Obama |
All |
Male |
Female |
|
Composition |
100% |
46.0% |
54.0% |
McCain |
51% |
25.3% |
25.9% |
Clinton |
41% |
18.4% |
22.1% |
McCain
|
54% |
25.3% |
28.6% |
Obama |
40% |
17.9% |
21.6% |
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COLUMNS |
A |
B |
C |
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D |
E |
F |
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G |
H |
I |
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J |
K |
L |
|
This data was used to determine margins in various categories between McCain and Clinton, McCain
and Obama, Mcain (against Clinton) and
McCain (against Obama), and Clinton and
Obama, as well as to determine the gender
gaps (gemder gap 1) for each
candidate in each contest (McCain v Clinton,
McCain v Obama), determine the difference of the gender gaps (gender gap 2)
between candidates in the same contest (McCain
v Clinton, McCain v Obama), and
determine the difference in the gender gaps in
the two contests (gap shift).
FORMULAS refer to the column letter found in the table above, and on this chart itself. Thus the first formula (A-D=M) reads A minus D equals M, and means that McCain’s total percentage of the vote (Col A) minus Clinton’s total percentage of the vote (Col D) equals the total vote margin (All) between McCain and Clinton.
|
Unweighed Margins |
Unweighed Gender Gaps |
Unweighed |
||||||||||||||||||
|
McCain minus Clinton |
McCain minus Obama |
MvC minus MvO |
Clinton minus Obama |
MvC gender gaps |
MvO gender gaps |
Gender gap |
Gender gap |
Gap |
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All |
Male |
Female |
All |
Male |
Female |
All |
Male |
Female |
All |
Male |
Female |
McCain |
Clinton |
McCain |
Obama |
MvC |
Mv0 |
Shift |
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|
10% |
15% |
7% |
14% |
16% |
13% |
-3% |
0% |
-5% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
7% |
-1% |
2% |
-1% |
8% |
3% |
5% |
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|
M |
N |
O |
P |
Q |
R |
S |
T |
U |
V |
W |
X |
Y |
Z |
AA |
AB |
AC |
AD |
AE |
||
|
A-D=M |
B-E=N |
C-F=O |
G-J=P |
H-K=Q |
I-L=R |
A-G=S |
B-H-T |
C-I=U |
D-J=V |
E-K=W |
F-L=X |
B-C=Y |
E-F=Z |
H-I= AA |
K-L= AB |
Y-AA= AC |
Z-AB= AD |
AC-AD =AE |
||
MARGINS |
GENDER GAP 1 |
GENDER GAP 2 |
GAP SHIFT |
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|
Weighed Margins |
Weighed Gender Gaps |
Weighed |
||||||||||||||||||
|
McCain minus Clinton |
McCain minus Obama |
MvC minus MvO |
Clinton minus Obama |
MvC gender gaps |
MvO gender gaps |
Gender gap |
Gender gap |
Gap |
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|
All |
Male |
Female |
All |
Male |
Female |
MvC |
Mv0 |
Female |
All |
Male |
Female |
McCain |
Clinton |
McCain |
Obama |
MvC |
Mv0 |
Shift |
||
|
10% |
6.9% |
3.8% |
14% |
7.4% |
7.0% |
-3% |
0.0% |
-2.7% |
1% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
-0.6% |
-3.6% |
-3.3% |
-3.7% |
3.0% |
0.3% |
2.7% |
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M |
N |
O |
P |
Q |
R |
S |
T |
U |
V |
W |
X |
Y |
Z |
AA |
AB |
AC |
AD |
AE |
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