DATA AND METHODOLOGY USED FOR THE POISONED LANDSCAPE

 

OVERVIEW OF DATA COLLECTION AND CALCULATIONS

EXPLANATION OF CHART ONE, AND ASSOCIATED DATA, IS HERE

EXPLANATION OF CHART TWO, AND ASSOCIATED DATA, IS HERE

EXPLANATION OF CHART THREE, AND ASSOCIATED DATA, IS HERE

DATA AND EXPLANATION OF CHARTS  FOR ADDENDUM (SOUTH CAROLINA) , IS HERE

DATA AND EXPLANATION OF CHARTS  FOR ADDENDUM (OHIO) , IS HERE

 

(an excel spreadsheet with all data used for the charts in The Poisoned Landscape (including associated data) is available from the author upon request by writing to election AT glcq DOT com )

 

OVERVIEW

The primary data for this study is the 50 State Survey USA (SUSA) poll.  Data for each state (linked from the main page) was copied and pasted into a spreadsheet then formatted and organized to make it easier to work with, and calculations were done to weigh the data. Thus this from Alabama.

 

 

All

Male

 

Female

 

White

 

Black

 

Republic

McCain

51%

55%

48%

62%

19%

84%

Clinton

41%

40%

41%

33%

61%

12%

Undecided

8%

5%

11%

5%

19%

4%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Composition of Registered Voters

100%

46%

54%

74%

23%

39%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All

Male

 

Female

 

White

 

Black

 

Republic

 

McCain

54%

55%

53%

69%

9%

84%

Obama

40%

39%

40%

24%

89%

14%

Undecided

6%

6%

7%

7%

2%

3%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Composition of Registered Voters

100%

46%

54%

74%

23%

39%

 

Turned into this, with the weighed data being the product of the category percentage times its composition. (i.e, McCain v Clinton Unweighed Male vote for McCain is 55%, time 46% is equal to 25.3%

 

UNWEIGHED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

M v C

M v C

M v C

M v C

M v C

M v C

 

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Republic

McCain

51%

55%

48%

62%

19%

84%

Clinton

41%

40%

41%

33%

61%

12%

Undecided

8%

5%

11%

5%

19%

4%

Composition

100%

46%

54%

74%

23%

39%

 

M v O

M v O

M v O

M v O

M v O

M v O

 

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Republic

McCain

54%

55%

53%

69%

9%

84%

Obama

40%

39%

40%

24%

89%

14%

Undecided

6%

6%

7%

7%

2%

3%

Composition

100%

46%

54%

74%

23%

39%

WEIGHED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

M v C

M v C

M v C

M v C

M v C

M v C

 

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Republic

McCain

51%

25.3%

25.9%

45.9%

4.4%

32.8%

Clinton

41%

18.4%

22.1%

24.4%

14.0%

4.7%

Undecided

8%

2.3%

5.9%

3.7%

4.4%

1.6%

 

M v O

M v O

M v O

M v O

M v O

M v O

 

All

Male

Female

White

Black

Republic

McCain

54%

25.3%

28.6%

51.1%

2.1%

32.8%

Obama

40%

17.9%

21.6%

17.8%

20.5%

5.5%

Undecided

6%

2.8%

3.8%

5.2%

0.5%

1.2%

 

Which was put in to linear fashion (this is truncated)

Unweighed

 

 

McCain V

Clinton

 

 

McCain V

Clinton

 

 

McCain V

Obama

 

McCain V

Obama

 

 

All

Male

Female

McCain

All

Male

Female

Clinton

All

Male

Female

McCain

All

Male

Female

Obama

All

Male

Female

Composition

100%

46.0%

54.0%

McCain

51%

55%

48%

Clinton

41%

40%

41%

McCain

54%

55%

53%

Obama

41%

40%

41%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weighed

 

 

 

McCain V

Clinton

 

 

McCain V

Clinton

 

 

McCain V

Obama

 

McCain V

Obama

 

 

All

Male

Female

McCain

All

Male

Female

Clinton

All

Male

Female

McCain

All

Male

Female

Obama

All

Male

Female

Composition

100%

46.0%

54.0%

McCain

51%

25.3%

25.9%

Clinton

41%

18.4%

22.1%

McCain

54%

25.3%

28.6%

Obama

40%

17.9%

21.6%

 

 

 

COLUMNS

A

B

C

 

D

E

F

 

G

H

I

 

J

K

L

 

This data was used to determine margins in various categories between McCain and Clinton, McCain and Obama, Mcain (against Clinton) and McCain (against Obama), and Clinton and Obama, as well as to determine the gender gaps (gemder gap 1) for each candidate in each contest (McCain v Clinton, McCain v Obama), determine the difference of the gender gaps (gender gap 2) between candidates in the same contest (McCain v Clinton, McCain v Obama), and determine the difference in the gender gaps in the two contests (gap shift).

 

FORMULAS refer to the column letter found in the table above, and on this chart itself.  Thus the first formula (A-D=M) reads A minus D equals M, and means that McCain’s total percentage of the vote (Col A) minus Clinton’s total percentage of the vote (Col D) equals the total vote margin (All) between McCain and Clinton.

Unweighed Margins

Unweighed Gender Gaps

Unweighed

McCain minus Clinton

McCain minus Obama

MvC minus MvO

Clinton minus Obama

MvC gender gaps

MvO gender gaps

Gender gap

Gender gap

Gap

All

Male

Female

All

Male

Female

All

Male

Female

All

Male

Female

McCain

Clinton

McCain

Obama

MvC

Mv0

Shift

10%

15%

7%

14%

16%

13%

-3%

0%

-5%

1%

1%

1%

7%

-1%

2%

-1%

8%

3%

5%

M

N

O

P

Q

R

S

T

U

V

W

X

Y

Z

AA

AB

AC

AD

AE

A-D=M

B-E=N

C-F=O

G-J=P

H-K=Q

I-L=R

A-G=S

B-H-T

C-I=U

D-J=V

E-K=W

F-L=X

B-C=Y

E-F=Z

H-I=

AA

K-L=

AB

Y-AA=

AC

Z-AB=

AD

AC-AD

=AE

MARGINS

GENDER GAP 1

GENDER

GAP 2

GAP SHIFT

Weighed Margins

Weighed Gender Gaps

Weighed

McCain minus Clinton

McCain minus Obama

MvC minus MvO

Clinton minus Obama

MvC gender gaps

MvO gender gaps

Gender gap

Gender gap

Gap

All

Male

Female

All

Male

Female

MvC

Mv0

Female

All

Male

Female

McCain

Clinton

McCain

Obama

MvC

Mv0

Shift

10%

6.9%

3.8%

14%

7.4%

7.0%

-3%

0.0%

-2.7%

1%

0.5%

0.5%

-0.6%

-3.6%

-3.3%

-3.7%

3.0%

0.3%

2.7%

M

N

O

P

Q

R

S

T

U

V

W

X

Y

Z

AA

AB

AC

AD

AE